The Myth of Perseverance at All Cost, Long Live the Time-Boxed Startup - Tactician: #0086

"Have you ever heard about this 'perseverance at all cost' idea? It's like you're on a sinking ship, and instead of getting off, you're like, 'No, I think I'll just stay and play one more round of shuffleboard.' Sometimes, it's okay to say, 'You know what? I think I'll take the next boat.'"

27/03/24

The Myth of Perseverance at All Cost

Why Read:

• Learn why prioritizing efficiency and adaptability over mere perseverance can lead to more effective decision-making and faster growth.

Author:

• David Peterson, Partner at Angular Ventures

Link: 

• “Founders as Experiment Designers”

Key Concepts and Tactics:

• Challenging the Perseverance Myth:

  • "A few days ago, I posted about what I think is one of the most dangerous myths in the startup world: that being successful is all about perseverance, grinding, and grit. Now, of course, there are many moments in the life of a founder when grinding is exactly what it takes... But, if you convince yourself that all it takes to win is grinding, because 'that’s what successful founders do,' that can lead to wasting years of your life on something that likely won’t work."

• Founders Being 'Greedy' with Their Time:

  • "Instead, it’s my experience that the best founders aren’t necessarily those who grind the longest, but those who are the most 'greedy' with their time. Said another way, I’m constantly inspired by founders who, with limited information, quickly make the call on whether something is working or not, and then either double-down or move on."

• Running Everything as an Experiment:

  • "My advice: run everything as an experiment. Putting your product in front of a customer for the first time? Targeting a new customer segment? Launching a new feature? Testing out new positioning? No matter what you’re doing…think of it as an experiment."

• Deciding on a Metric That Matters:

  • "First, decide on a metric that matters. Early on, when you barely have a product, the metric will undoubtedly have to be a proxy for value... and you’ll have to use a lot of your own intuition to decide whether or not the result is meaningful. As time goes on, this will be less of a problem."

• Timeboxing Experiments:

  • "Second, timebox it. Most likely, this is not a 'real' experiment, so there’s no need to run it until you hit statistical significance. Instead, set a time limit up front and stick to it. Keep up the momentum."

• Making Big (Enough) Changes:

  • "Third, make big (enough) changes... One way to counter that is to test out changes that you think will have a huge effect. As an example, instead of changing the color of the sign up button, change the entire landing page."

• Recording the Results:

  • "Fourth, and finally, record the results. As Richard Feynman said, 'the first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.' It’s easy to convince yourself that something worked after the fact. Keep yourself honest. Write down what success would look like, record the results and compare. If you do this, you’ll get better at estimating the results over time as well."

• Embracing Fast Pivots When Necessary:

  • "I’ve come to agree with Elad Gil that things that work, tend to work quickly. That doesn’t mean you should give up on your idea. The core hypothesis may still be correct. But it could mean that a pivot is in order to figure out the path from here to there. If a pivot is needed, then do it fast."

Long Live the Time-Boxed Startup

Why Read:

• Explore the concept of time-boxing as a strategy to enhance focus, urgency, and decision-making in the startup journey.

Author:

• Anu Atluru, startup builder, angel investor, and writer

Link: 

• “The Time-Boxed Startup”

Key Concepts and Tactics:

• Introduction to Time-Boxed Startups

  • "A time-boxed startup entails 3 things: Pick a default end date for your startup before you kick off. Align your runway to the end date (ideally with a few months of cushion). Decide what has to happen for you to abandon the end date, i.e., keep going. A traditional startup is default forever. A time-boxed startup is default for now."

• Defining the Time Duration

  • "How long is the 'time' in 'time-boxed?' The short answer is 2 years. Time-box your startup to 2 years in the market. Put your product in customers' hands and try to crack product-market fit. If you add in pre-launch and wind-down time, the total time could be closer to 2.5 or 3 years."

• Addressing Expected Criticisms

  • "Is it blasphemous to suggest an end date for a startup before it ever starts? 'Many great companies took a lot longer than 2-3 years to work' – True, but we don't talk enough about how many companies stayed alive for 5, even 10 years but still didn't yield much or become 'great.' 'Real entrepreneurs would tough it out as long as it takes' – Some people will say that entrepreneurship is meant to be hard and you should never quit."

• The Case for a 2-Year Time-Boxed Startup

  • "Most successful startups reach product-market fit in ~ 2 years. Early funding is meant to give startups at least 18-24 months of runway. Two years is long enough to test your hypotheses, with many iterations. More time runs the risk of reducing urgency."

• Deciding When to Abandon the End Date

  • "It's all about forward progress. If you reach the end date and you don't have meaningful forward progress, shut down. If you do, abandon it (and set up a new date and plan). Forward progress is some combination of founder drive and product-market momentum."

• Examples of Time-Boxed Startups

  • "In some startup categories, it's very possible to build, launch, and iterate incredibly fast. Teams of famous or experienced founders shutting down a startup within a year or so after launching. A notable example is Artifact (by the founders of Instagram, Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger)."

• Not a One-Size-Fits-All Approach

  • "We mythologize the stories of startups that had nothing working for years and then one day they turn into a rocketship, a unicorn, a massive public company. These are inspirational stories. But, they're not pragmatic, nor representative of most. Normalize time-boxing startups — and still giving it your all."

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